Furthermore, many international organizations, e.g., HAZUS Multi-Hazard (MH) in the United States, the Florida Pubic Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM) in the state of Florida, the Central American Probability Risk Assessment (CAPRA) in South America, the new Multi-Risk and Multi-Risk Assessment Method (MATRIX) in Europe, and the RiskScape in New Zealand, are investing a lot of resources in developing natural catastrophe models to be able to better predict, respond, and mitigate the risks associated with natural disasters. In the regression analysis of the residential building, the Adj-R2 value is 0.587, which indicates that 58.7% of the variant of the loss ratio can be described by the regression model. H. Kunreuther, R. Meyer, C. Van den Bulte, E. Robert, and Chapman, C. C. Watson, M. E. Johnson, and S. Martin, “Insurance rate filings and hurricane loss estimation models,”, P. Grossi, H. Kunreuther, and D. Windeler, “An introduction to catastrophe models and insurance,” in, D. Cummins, C. Lewis, and R. Phillips, “Pricing excess-of-loss reinsurance contracts against cat as trophic loss,” in, J. Elsner and K. Liu, “Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis,”, W. J. Platt, R. F. Doren, and T. V. Armentano, “Effects of Hurricane Andrew on cypress (Taxodium distichum var. Busan was also significantly devastated by the typhoon to the dollar amount of damages (43.8%) and the number of losses (45.0%). According to the number of the coefficient, the indicators are (1) maximum wind speed (beta coefficient = –0.509), (2) total value of property (beta coefficient = 0.328), (3) distance from coast (beta coefficient = –0.248), and (4) floors (beta coefficient = 0.113). The pure premium is a combination of modeled cat risk, nonmodeled cat risk, and noncat risk such as FLEXA (i.e., fire, lighting, explosion, and aircraft). Previous typhoon and vulnerability research conducted in Asia has emphasised the socioeconomic and institutional factors contributing to people’s vulnerability (Gaillard et … The value of property is negatively associated with the degree of loss caused by a typhoon. This quantification of damage data represented in the insurance claim payout record can be especially helpful because of the detailed and specified information about each case of damage of the buildings, which also enables engineers and insurance underwriters, for logical and accurate, and thus more reliable review estimation of the damage. For residential buildings, maximum wind speed, distance from coast, total value of property, and number of floors are significant indicators. As of 2 p.m., typhoon Pablo was located 70 km south of Tagbiliran City with maximum sustained winds of 160 kph and gustiness of 195 kph moving west at 20 kph. For this reason and many other related reasons, the low data quality does not follow the input level of the sophisticated vendor CAT models to date. iii Shelter 227,953,000.00 271,980,000.00 Health (WASH) - 30,746,800.00TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION Hazard Assessment 1 Typhoon Pablo 2 Vulnerability and Exposure 2 The distance from the coast is adversely related with the amount of loss caused by a typhoon. To be more specific, the monetary data was adopted because of its definiteness and objectivity [30]. This typhoon severely devastated a wide area covering several southern Asian countries with extreme storm surges, landfall, and winds and led to total losses estimated at $ 2.88 billion. What does this mean is that vulnerability is in our hands,” Narisma added.By addressing the vulnerability, she explained, the impacts could be decreased as well as the possibility of a disaster. The reason for this is that developing a database that includes such information is considered to be inefficient, timewise and moneywise, for not only small- and medium-sized companies but also large corporations [7]. The central trends in each category are expressed as a mean. Nonetheless, many insurance companies are tended to be hesitant to record or document the data on detailed building exposures, such as building type, building age, building height, and building materials. In this study, the vulnerability function of the typhoon risk assessment models has also been developed and validated based on the statistical analysis of the actual loss claim payout data kept by an insurance company. In particular, the loss distribution shows that in the right side area of the Gyeongnam province, more damage has occurred than in the left side area of the province. This means that the loss increases as the wind speed intensifies. 2020, Article ID 8885916, 10 pages, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8885916, 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Mokpo National University, 1666 Yeongsan-Ro, Cheonggye-myeon, Muan-gun, Jeonnam 58554, Republic of Korea, 2School of Architectural Engineering, University of Ulsan, 93 Daehak-Ro, Ulsan 44610, Republic of Korea, 3Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, Columbia University, 500 W. 120th Street #610, New York, NY 10027, USA. This loss ratio is a concept and a term established in this study; loss ratio is the amount of occurred losses to indemnifying typhoon damages divided by the property value of the damaged building. Using physical evidence and logical assumptions, this study derived a model that calculates number and financial values of damage, while assessing and simulating the spatial distribution and total damage [22]. Emergency Live is the only multilingual magazine dedicated to people involved in rescue and emergency. The Philippines ranked second in terms of exposure and vulnerability to climate-related risks in the Global Climate Change Risk Report for 2020 of Germanwatch, the environment think tank. Table 3 shows the typhoon information and basic building information related to the loss ratio for the line of business (LOB): commercial, residential, and industrial, as assessed through the regression models, correspondingly. The reason for this was that the typhoon landed directly on the midcoast of Gyeongnam province, and the right side of the area had more influence than the left side of the area by the strong wind and rainfall of the typhoon [17, 18]. Again as to future research, the values of adjusted R2 were 0.332 for commercial buildings, 0.587 for residential buildings, and 0.403 for industrial buildings, which indicate that the residual variability of the damage is described by some indeterminate indicators. Typhoon Maemi was generated as a tropical cyclone in the sea near Guam on September 4, 2003 and landed on the southern coast of the Korean peninsula on September 11 after passing through Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. Chock looked into hurricane damage on Hawaii residential buildings gathered and georeferenced on the GIS. The World Meteorological Organization decided to remove the name Maemi from circulation and substituted it with Mujigae in 2006 due to the extreme damage and death caused by the typhoon [19]. In other words, in catastrophe modeling, vulnerability curves define the degree of vulnerability according to, e.g., types of the buildings, and thus can serve as an important part of the modeling. Therefore, typhoon risk assessment modeling is becoming increasingly important, and in order to achieve a sophisticated evaluation, it is also important to reflect more specified and local vulnerabilities. The purpose of this research is to identify the indicators of typhoon damage and develop a metric for typhoon vulnerability functions employing the losses associated with Typhoon Maemi. Although provisional, the model this study presents found that it is the resistance of roof tile and the correlation of trajectories of flying debris that takes an important part in the vulnerability [23]. Among the two types of typhoons, straight and recurving, in areas such as Philippines, southern China, and Vietnam, are threatened by straight-moving typhoons, while recurving typhoons are threats to Korea, northern China, and Japan [16]. Zhang suggested the concept of socioeconomic vulnerability and provided six vulnerability indicators (population density, population of coastline, GDP, primary industry export, annual disposable income of urban residents, and annual disposable income of rural residents) to assess the socioeconomic vulnerability to typhoon surges [21]. Following the scale of the coefficient, the indicators are (1) the total value of property (beta coefficient = –0.622), (2) floors (beta coefficient = 0.227), and (3) distance from coast (beta coefficient = –0.222). The death toll from Typhoon “Pablo” has topped 1,000 with hundreds more missing and feared dead, the government said Sunday. In order to reach this goal, this study used Typhoon Maemi loss record from a primary insurance company in South Korea. The indicators can be listed in the descending order of their beta coefficients. Philippines Typhoon Pablo Philippines Typhoon Saola Haiti 7.0 Earthquake Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami West Sumatra 7.6 Earthquake Taiwan Typhoon Morakot Preparedness Initiatives Taiwan Preparedness Initiative Furthermore, the potential risk of natural disaster is the one of the major points used to determine the premium. Every year, typhoons such as Typhoon Maemi cause serious financial losses worldwide. Furthermore, in developing countries with emerging economies, in which insurance penetration rates are relatively low, it is strongly required to create vulnerability functions using historical loss records. Furthermore, the frameworks and indicators of this study can also be used for a further similar research, especially in developing countries with few data on loss caused by windstorms and building characteristics to predict windstorms. The maximum wind speed and loss due to the typhoon are positively interrelated. © 2020 - Emergency Live. The premium consists of the pure premium, expense, and profit. We are committed to sharing findings related to COVID-19 as quickly as possible. More specifically, it is a problem that models can only be developed and evaluated in a limited number of countries, such as the United States, China, and Japan, which often suffer large losses due to natural disasters and large insurance industries. Typhoon Maemi in 2003 caused the most extreme damages in South Korea, as it was the largest in size and intensity since the record-keeping had begun in the country in 1904. The vulnerability module is a module that uses the vulnerability function to quantify the degree of damage by vulnerability according to the building attributes using the correlation between damage and risk indicators [6]. After Typhoon Bopha (locally known as Pablo) in December 2012 caused catastrophic damage and high human losses the country is now position 2 of the ranking, only preceded by Haiti. The distance between the building and coastline also plays an important role in describing a building’s vulnerability to windstorms. However, the other indicators are not associated with the loss ratio of residential building. She called on the need to invest in education or literacy to reduce vulnerability. Emergency Live - Pre-Hospital Care, Ambulance Services, Fire Safety and Civil Protection Magazine. However, in practice, it is difficult to develop a vulnerability function, since there is a lack of detailed loss records. If there is no good governance, we lose that coping capacity,” she added. Fig. That is, these claim payout records can be used to assess the vulnerability of individual buildings by taking advantage of the features of building inventory because such data includes the information of engineers’ and claim adjusters’ objectively inspections and their results and the information of claim payout paid accordingly. Among the key indicators of the variables, the value of property is the significant indicator that is shared among the three models. Therefore, insurers and reinsurers require in-house models that can verify the results of the standard models to their exposure. Keywords: Barangay Risk Reduction and Management Plan, disaster preparedness, response and relief, rehabilitation Typhoon Pablo has unveiled the vulnerability of our Mindanao communities to typhoons, landslides and flash floods. flood simulations and vulnerability assessment against pluvial flooding and coastal flooding due to storm surge during the passage of Typhoon Pablo. This study also aims to assess the loss reflecting the regional vulnerability and to build a systematic method to measure other extreme cases and countries to predict the typhoon loss. Part of the 2018 Pacific typhoon season Typhoon Yutu , known in the Philippines as Typhoon Rosita , was an extremely powerful tropical cyclone that caused catastrophic destruction on the islands of Tinian and Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands , and later impacted the Philippines . And therefore, the current situation is that the risk assessment is relied on the basic and minimum amount of data and information available. Read more http://www.mindanews.com/top-stories/2014/12/05/expert-cites-need-to-address-vulnerability-to-typhoons/. In addition to high winds up to 185 kph, intense heavy rainfall and storm surges, Typhoon Pablo also generated a massive debris flow in the municipality of New Bataan [5]. Data on property tax records, which included construction type attributes and property valuation, were also adopted, in order to specify residential building fragilities in relation to comprehensive reconstruction cost. Insurance and reinsurance companies can use the model from this research to improve their own business model using the methodologies to measure latent risks. The adjusted R2 value of the commercial building model was 0.332, indicating that 33.2% of the variance of the dependent variable can be explained by two indicators (total value of property and construction type). The amount of loss is the claim payout based on ground-up loss, which is the pure loss not accounting for insurance. As such, it is the ideal medium in terms of speed and cost for trading companies to reach large numbers of target users; for example, all companies involved in some way in the equipping of specialised means of transport. In addition, the maximum amount of loss caused by a catastrophic disaster is a very vital number in the insurance industry. Nevertheless, the other indicators are not related with the dependent variable of residential building. “When you have a hazard, does it necessarily translates immediately into a disaster? Table 3 displays the typhoon information and basic building information to loss ratios for Typhoon Maemi as assessed through regression analysis. The estimated The estimated coefficients from the regression model are then used to estimate ex-ante household vulnera- This also supports early research that reported that maximum wind speed is an essential indicator for predicting loss due to typhoons [12, 33, 40]. As a result, the LOB category can classify buildings as physical and financial functions. The damage was also enormous due to its severe wind speed, storm surge, and precipitation. Ultimately, this study was designed to provide more methodologically grounded understanding and evidence-based knowledge in minimizing the risks of typhoons to buildings. Previous studies on wind speed and precipitation in Korean peninsula have been conducted with similar yet various focuses: typhoon risk assessment wind speed from the GIS (Geographic Information System) [25], natural hazard prediction modeling based on a wind speed of typhoon and precipitation [26], characteristics of the damage scale and risk management system by strong wind speed of typhoon [27], damage analysis of meteorological disasters for each district considering the regional characteristics [28], and measuring typhoon damage by wind speed in the rural area properties [29]. Nonetheless, these models are not designed to be adopted in the insurance industry because there are no finance modules that consider insurance concepts such as layers, deductible, and so on. Therefore, findings and results of this research can serve as references and provide vital directions to abovementioned sectors such as federal and local governments, insurance companies, and construction companies in predicting typhoon losses. 1 Map of sites used as evacuation shelters within Cagayan De Oro in the Philippines during 3 recent flood events caused by tropical storms Sendong (2011), Pablo (2012) and Vinta (2017). E. S. Blake, T. B. Kimberlain, J. The LOB is typically used as a risk indicator to quantify the building vulnerability in the risk assessment model [7, 39]. Hence, analyzing extreme disasters makes a significant contribution in assigning risk and determining pricing. Last, in the case of industrial buildings, the significant indicators were found to be distance from coast, total value of property, and number of floors. In December 1999, three sequence of European windstorms, i.e., Anatol, Lothar, and Martin, hit Western Europe and Central Europe with heavy rains and strong winds. E. S. Blake, E. N. Rappaport, and C. W. Landsea. Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Ike have been classified as the hurricanes of the second and third largest financial losses, respectively. Gyeongnam was damaged by the typhoon to the dollar amount of loss (48.0%) and the number of losses (35.4%). In COVID-19-Positive Stroke Patients, More Severe Strokes and Worse Outcomes Than in…. The report stated that the Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu topped the chart, followed by the Polynesian state of Tonga. As a result, this study suggested risk relativity factors and developed loss functions, which contributed to estimating hurricane damage to various Hawaii buildings [20]. Probable maximum loss (PML) has to be taken into account by an underwriter when taking risks. Hence, constructing the vulnerability curves referring to the data and meaning factors from this research can enhance future studies with the similar focus and approach. 486,554 families / 5,408,900 persons in 1,926 barangays / 249 municipalities / 37 cities in 30 provinces of Regions IV-B, VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI, XII, and CARAGA were affected by typhoon Pablo. Video and tips, Rescue And Ambulance Service Network Of SAMU: A Piece Of Italy In Chile, COVID-19 blew all the Ambulance services and Rescue exhibitions away. Narisma stressed that most victims of natural disasters are those living in poverty. Copyright © 2020 Ji-Myong Kim et al. D. E. A. Sanders, B. Anders, D. Paul et al., “The management of losses arising from extreme events,” Convention General Insurance Study Group GIRO, London, UK, 2002. The storm was forecast to cross right over northern Mindanao and past the western Visayas island group. “We are vulnerable if you don’t have don’t have good governance. On Dec. 4, Typhoon Pablo slammed into Southern Mindanao, hitting some of the same cities and towns still recovering from the havoc suffered during Sendong. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the evaluation model, the demand for and importance of identifying and developing work through proxy measurements of risks is increasing. This signifies that the degree of loss rises as a building is closer to the coast. She called on the need to invest in education or literacy to reduce vulnerability. A 2011 typhoon, Washi, which wreaked considerable harm, was their most recent reminder of this danger, at least until Typhoon Pablo, the local name for Bopha. The values show that there is no significant multicollinearity between variables. In a forum with the members of the Caucus of Development NGO Networks (CODE-NGO) here on Thursday, Narisma explained in her presentation the vulnerability of the country to typhoons. “Will there be another Yolanda in the future? Photo/flickr user SCA Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget. Don't…, Piazzale Badalocchio 9/b 43126 Parma (PR) – Italy. As can be seen, the precision of the vulnerability function, among many other factors, is substantially affected by the presence and its quality of past damage data. Narisma also cited a study of the United Nations University for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), which revealed that the Philippines ranked third in the 2013 World Risk Index. Yet, due to the nature of the data, although any customer information is hardly included, the public access to the data is not permitted to avoid any possible problems. For example, the vulnerability curve for typhoons describes the link between average damage rate and wind speed and determines the degree of damage, depending on the types of buildings. The project co-created digital stories of residents, who lived through super Typhoon Pablo in 2012, and of the officials from the Municipal Disaster Risk Management office who responded to that disaster. For instance, the correlation between building height and typhoon loss is negative, which means that as building height increases, typhoon loss decreases [37, 38]. The records of previous extreme disasters are used as essential bases to establish the zone and limit. T. Kim and K. Son, “Predicting hurricane wind damage by claim payout based on Hurricane Ike in Texas,”, C. G. Burton, “Social vulnerability and hurricane impact modeling,”, W. E. Highfield, W. G. Peacock, and S. Van Zandt, “Determinants & characteristics of damage in single-family island households from Hurricane Ike1,” in, D. D’Ayala, C. Alex, and H. Wang, “A conceptual model for multi-hazard assessment of the vulnerability of historic buildings,” in, J.-M. Kim, K. Son, and Y.-J. Coefficient designates the nonstandardized coefficients that reflect the unit scale of the independent variable. Therefore, in order to plan for unanticipated damage and compute maximum losses, it is necessary to analyze extreme disasters. Heneka and Ruck focused on German winder storm events in 2000s and the damage from them to residential buildings. The values of the variance inflation coefficient (VIF) ranged from 1.109 to 2.190. We will be providing unlimited waivers of publication charges for accepted research articles as well as case reports and case series related to COVID-19. The closer a building is to the coast, the more devastated it is to typhoons [34]. The reason why the significant indicators and adjusted R2 are different among the regression model is that they have different damage vulnerabilities against typhoon damage. XOL and LOL are meaningful for allocating and limiting financial risk [14]. Therefore, in future studies, other possible indicators should be identified and added to the model. The values of the variance inflation coefficient (VIF) ranged from 1.048 to 1.1. We are vulnerable if the public infrastructure is not in place—if you don’t have good water and sanitation systems, and so on. More specifically, they can use modeling to assess risks and make judgments and use the base rate of insurance policies as a percentage of experience with expected losses. In order to ascertain the actual damage and loss to the commercial, residential, and industrial buildings from Typhoon Maemi, this study made use of the claim payout data accumulated and provided by a major Korean insurance company. Based on the field observations and forensic interpretations, this study presents fragility functions obtained from damage statistics for wattle and daub houses [24]. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper. This study conducted a statistical analysis on the damages caused by Typhoon Maemi, which was categorized as an extreme disaster, in order to identify the natural hazard indicators and basic building information indicators and to develop a vulnerability function. These models are also used by insurers and reinsurers around the world to assess the risks of natural disasters such as hurricanes, tsunamis, typhoons, floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, and winter storms, and they are considered to be the standard methodologies for natural disaster risk management. The average damage rate of the vulnerability curve indicates the building’s storm vulnerability. From vehicle manufacturers to companies involved in equipping those vehicles, to any supplier of life- saving and rescue equipment and aids. In this study, based on the actual record of damages and the consequent financial losses caused by typhoons documented and accumulated by a major insurance company in Korea, it is first aimed to identify the statistically significant risk factors of buildings and of typhoons while relying on the objectivity and accuracy of the quantitative data. The vulnerability function can be found by analyzing past storm losses, and it can also be validated by the losses recorded. The LOB is a term that is a commonplace in the insurance industry and denotes a tightly linked product or service that is a business necessity. Your Health Record could be shared as a Facebook status? They should be able to judge whether the outcome is optimistic, pessimistic, or conservative, depending on their exposure. Although many similarities, however, this study distinguishes itself from other studies especially in terms of the data source it selected. Based on the existing location information, the wind speed and distance from the property centroid to the coastline are estimated. B. Kruse, Y. Wang, and Y. Wang, “Spatial dependencies in wind-related housing damage,”, J.-M. Kim, K. Son, Y. Yoo, D. Lee, and D. Kim, “Identifying risk indicators of building damage due to typhoons: focusing on cases of South Korea,”, P. J. Vickery, P. F. Skerlj, J. Lin, L. A. Twisdale Jr, M. A. Uncertainty of typhoons. Similarly, in certain countries, it is particularly difficult to describe the correlation between potential risk and loss, due to incoherent data or a lack of data [8]. In addition, all of these studies aimed to suggest a loss function or a model to adopt in an attempt to estimate and simulate the damage and loss in other areas in the event of future hurricanes/windstorms/typhoons. This debris flow accounted for many of the Pablo victims, who died inside a public school building that was used as an evacuation center. Meanwhile, claim payout records of insurance companies can provide specific, accurate, and reliable loss data. As the death toll from typhoon Pablo (local name Pablo) increased to 418 today and is still rising, experts and analysts say killer typhoons that hit the Philippines are caused by the climate change Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) , 4 December 2012 World’sdeadliest storm in 2012 (strong winds- 260 km per hour and heavy rainfall- 500 mm in 24 hours); Reportedly the most powerful storm to hit southern Mindanao in more than 100 years. The purpose of this research is to identify the indicators of typhoon damage and develop a metric for typhoon vulnerability functions employing the losses associated with Typhoon Maemi. The results reveal that a building farther from the coastline is less vulnerable to windstorms than a building closer to the coastline. The distance from the property centroid to the coastline is also estimated based on the address information using the Geographic Information System. The total economic damages were approximately 13 billion euros [4]. However, such models are hardly applicable for all companies and cases due to their high annual fees and also limitations for specifics. Typhoon Vamco, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Ulysses, was a powerful and deadly Category 4-equivalent typhoon that struck the Philippines and Vietnam and eventually became the second-costliest Philippine typhoon of all time, only surpassed by that of Typhoon Haiyan. For this reason, insurers and reinsurers analyze extreme natural disasters in order to prepare reserves for losses from such extreme natural disasters. The values of the variance inflation coefficient (VIF) ranged from 1.016 to 1.293. nutans) in south Florida,”, J. M. Kim, P. K. Woods, Y. J. 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